Indian economy is expected to become the third-largest in the world by 2050 after China and the US and is likely to retain the spot in 2100 as well, according to a Lancet study. The report translated forecasts of the working-age population into scenarios for total GDP with 2017 as the base year. Huge declines in the number of workers were forecasted in China and India even as the latter was expected to still have the largest working-age population in the world by 2100, the report added. Nigeria, China and the US were expected to be other top countries by the working-age population. The working-age population defined by the International Labour Organization is 15 years or older.
While economic pecking order by 2030 was expected to be the US followed by China, Japan and India, by 2100, the US was again likely to become the biggest economy followed by China and India. Japan, however, was forecasted to remain at fourth position in 2100 from 2050. Other leading countries in the top 10 economies were expected to be Germany, the UK, France, Brazil, Turkey, Canada by 2050 and Germany, France, the UK, Australia, Nigeria, and Canada.
India had retained its rank as the third-largest economy globally in purchasing power parity (PPP) for 2017 reference year, the government had said in June this year citing data from the World Bank. India had a 6.7 per cent ($8,051 billion) share of $119,547 billion of global GDP in PPP terms vis-à-vis China’s 16.4 per cent share and 16.3 per cent share of the US, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation had said in a statement.
On other hand, ranked as per nominal GDP, India became the fifth largest economy, as per data from IMF, in February this year leapfrogging France and the UK, said World Economic Forum. “The country’s GDP growth has been among the highest in the world in the past decade – regularly achieving annual growth of between 6-7 per cent. This rapid rise has been fueled by a number of factors, according to a 2016 McKinsey Global Institute report, including urbanization and technologies that have improved efficiency and productivity,” it added.